CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID 06Z TUE 01/03 - 06Z WED 02/03 2005
ISSUED: 28/02 22:34Z
FORECASTER: DAHL

General thunderstorms are forecast across the S-central Mediterranean including the Aegean Sea.

SYNOPSIS

Broad/intense upper frontal zone has established over the Mediterranean Regions ... curving across the Black Sea into central Russia. Several embedded vort maxima are expected to track across the W and central Mediterranean Regions on Tuesday. Main low-level baroclinic zone will likewise stretch across the central Mediterranean across Turkey into Russia ... with several frontal waves progged to track along this front across the south-central Mediterranean and the Aegean Sea during the period.

DISCUSSION

...SEE TEXT area...
S of and along the frontal boundary ... Monday's lightning activity and radiosonde data indicate increasing stabilization of this air mass ... however ... UVV's associated with the frontal waves may be sufficient to create weakly unstable environment again ... so that a few TSTMS may occur. It appears that TSTMS will tend to be elevated ... limiting severe threat. If storms managed to become SFC-based ... shear profiles should be sufficient for a few rotating updrafts ... and a slight large-hail/severe-wind-gust/tornado threat could evolve. Position of the frontal waves is incoherently progged ... but threat should be maximized in the vicinity of the frontal waves. Confidence in widespread severe is too low ATTM for a SLGT.

...NW/W Mediterranean Sea...
Convective mixing in the polar air mass over the NW Mediterranean is coherently progged to shrink in depth ... and TSTMS should generally be quite unlikely. However ... even rather low EL heights have sufficed for scattered lightning strikes during the past days. Also ... Monday's spatial lightning distribution seems to be correlated rather well with tongue of only modestly cold theta-e's in the BOLAM output ... and weak NMM22 CAPE maximum keeps to coincide with this plume through Tuesday. So ... best chances for isolated lightning strikes should exist over the NW Mediterranean Sea and the Spanish Mediterranean coast. However ... coverage of TSTMS is expected to be too low for a TSTM outlook.

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